Monty Hall problem

Monty Hall problem

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Just made a tit of myself by arguing incorrectly against the Monty Hall Paradox until eventually a light came on in my head.

Gearing myself up for today's Germany/Argentina game...who does an Englishman pick out of them two? Tricky...I think that could be de facto final. Could be a great game...unfortunately I'm stuck in work.